Putin’s Iran Plan
>
>
by Ralph Peters [author, novelist]
Iran’s traditional emblem has been the Persian lion. Russia’s should be a vulture: Prime Minister Vladimir Putin intends to feed on the carcass left by any confrontation with Iran.
For Moscow, this crisis isn’t about Tehran’s acquisition of nukes. It’s about Russia’s acquisition of a stranglehold on global energy markets.
Putin’s playing with fire — but he’s sure we’ll be the ones burned.
As for the Obama administration’s desperate (and stunningly naive) hope that economic sanctions can deter President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and his fellow thugs-for-Allah from pursuing nuclear weapons, forget it.
Even were Putin to permit his front-man, President Dmitri Medvedev, to agree to half-baked sanctions, Moscow would violate them before Obama could step out of Air Force One with a piece of paper in his hand guaranteeing peace in our time.
The current crisis is a win-win-win for Putin. But before laying out his plan, let’s run the numbers:
The Persian Gulf’s littoral states hold over 60 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and 40 percent of the natural gas. Russia has “just” 10 percent of the oil reserves and 35 percent of the world’s natural gas.
Do the math: Iran and its neighbors, along with Russia, own two-thirds of the world’s oil reserves and 70 percent of the natural gas. And the global economy still runs on oil and gas, folks.
Despite the State Department’s compartmentalization mentality, Russia and Iran don’t exist in separate worlds. It’s less than a day’s drive from Russia’s southern border through Azerbaijan to Iran’s northwestern border. I’ve driven it.
This is one macro-region for energy, the zone of ultimate control. Putin gets it, even if we don’t. Here’s Czar Vladimir’s strategic trifecta:
* For now, Russia profits wonderfully from its trade, both legal and illicit, with Iran, while the West talks itself to death. Life is good.
* But life could get even better: If Iran’s nuclear quest isn’t blocked, a nuclear arsenal will give Iran de facto control of all Persian Gulf oil. Putin envisions a Moscow-Tehran axis, an energy cartel that dramatically increases the value of his oil and gas — the only economic props keeping the corpse of Russia upright.
* If Israel’s driven to a forlorn-hope attack on Iran’s nuke program, Iran will respond by striking Gulf Arab oil fields and facilities, while closing the Strait of Hormuz. The US military will be in it, like it or not. Oil and gas prices will soar unimaginably — and the bear will have its paws on the golden tap.
So the worst outcome for Putin — more of the same — is still good. A bad outcome for everybody else is even better in Putin’s strategy to renew Russia’s superpower status.
Why on earth would this guy help us stop Iran? When he hates us, anyway? (It isn’t you, Barack. It’s just business.)
For all his viciousness, Putin’s a serious strategist. We don’t have any high-level strategists. Not one. On either side of the Potomac.
In his first decade on the throne, Czar Vladimir focused on addicting Europe to Russian gas, while moving successfully to exert control over as many pipelines as possible. That was the constructive decade.
The second decade in the reign of Vladimir I is the energy-cartel-building phase. This will be the confrontational phase.
Energy’s the only real power Putin has, so he’s maximizing it.
It’s no accident that a strategic triangle has emerged between Moscow, Tehran and Caracas — home of the great Latin mischief-lover, Hugo Chavez, who thrives on his own nation’s petro-wealth.
For us, the Iran crisis is about peace. For Putin, it’s about power. Yet the self-deluding Obama administration really believes that Moscow’s going to support us. After our president gave away our only serious bargaining chip, the missile-defense system promised to our European allies.
Putin thinks in 10-year-plans. We can’t think past the next congressional roll-call vote.
The Obama administration’s primary legacy to the world is going to be a nuclear-armed Iran. ExileStreet
courtesy NY Post / copyright 2009 NY Post
Ralph Peters new novel, “The War After Armageddon,” is on the street. He is Fox News’ strategic analyst. His most recent book is “Looking For Trouble: Adventures in a Broken World.”
Peters is a retired Army officer and the author of 19 books, as well as of hundreds of essays and articles, written both under his own name and as Owen Parry. He is a frequent columnist for the New York Post and other publications.
October 3rd, 2009 at 9:27 pm
Russia still remains a superpower even during the economic crisis as they are the only country who can hamdle the Iran issue, the US can’t. There’s a lot more to what Russia has going and how they still hold superpower status. For example NATO has gone too far in expanding when they were not supposed to expand into any post Soviet countries which they clearly have as Russia has many reasons to become a superpower. The country is building everything in its military, such as 7 to 11 aircraft carriers in the coming 10 years starting 2010, they intend to start the Mars mission by 2015 and or if resceduled, woulod be 2018 at the most/ They still remain the 2nd world largest military but still have the worlds largest army and they are aiming to the number navy and airforce by 2020, also China is aiming to do the same. Here is some facts below to verify Russia is a suerpower but it isn’t just me, these are the verified facts and the US has announced it in 2006 at the St. Pet Russia G8 meeting and in 2007.
CNN Russia is a Superpower 2 US Senators telling the truth
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9079543725663390621&ei=GzRuSoiPJ4_0qAPb1_DxAg&hl=en#
Superpower Reborn 2008
http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6527&Itemid=68&lang=ka
Washington Acknowledges Russia as Superpower 2007
http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?id=768929
The outlook on a triple-superpower world 2008
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0822/p09s03-coop.html
Superpower swoop 2008
http://www.newstatesman.com/europe/2008/08/georgia-russia-ukraine-cheney
Russia in the 21st Century The Prodigal Superpower
http://www.cambridge.org/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=0521836786
October 4th, 2009 at 5:31 am
No one has yet replied to your mail Peters despite your 19 books under the wing I think because no one today other than a true redneck would believe anything written in English other than Alice in Wonderland. Please try to write in another non Anglo-Saxon language and people would believe you. Jaribu KISWAHILI labuda utapata wasikizaji. I hope you understand.
October 4th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
What about China’s role in this scenario? Their dependence on Iranian oil drives their conciliatory Iran policy. Are you suggesting China will stand idly by and let Putin take control of its lifeline?
October 5th, 2009 at 7:15 am
Peters, still writing for the kiddies hoping that the world is a reflection of his concave mirror or that someone out there still thinks that we are the good guys and they (russia) are the bad guys. Time is running out for your convoluted thought process – its so embarrassing to actually portray oneself as a writer and novelist above this silly attempt at political journalism.
October 5th, 2009 at 7:36 am
I agree with most of it and I hope Russia continues on the path that they are on because Russia is our only hope and our only protection against a moronic and failing superpower, the U.S. and its ugly little palmeranian lap dog, Israel.
What I don’t agree with is this anti-Iran crap. Why is that none of the reporters here in the West cite any of the real facts on Iran. Why is it all the same BS propaganda? When the rest of the world knows that Iran is a threat to nobody and the only threat in the region is Israel. Why is a country like Iran, who is at war with nobody & has never attacked anybody in modern history, being chastized by a country who is fighting 3 wars of agression (The U.S) and being told to act peacefully by a war mongering nation like the U.S.
It’s crazy really.
October 5th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
Avete perso! Ah ah ah ah ah
Tra non molto i dollari serviranno solo per imbottire i materassi! Ah ah ah ah ha ah ah!
State perdendo! Ah ah ah ah ah
Qualsiasi cosa facciate è sbagliata! Ah ah ah ah ah
I russi vi fregano quando vogliono!
Adesso siete voi impantanati in Afghanistan! Ah ah ah ah ah
Ma come fate ad essere così stupidi? E’ perché mangiate hamburger da Mc Donald!
Avete un meraviglioso destino manifesto……..come tutti i vigliacchi!
Prima ammazzate donne e bambini in giro per il mondo.
Poi scappate appesi ai pattini degli elicotteri ( Vietnam 1975 )
Evviva la nazione Cheyennes!
Evviva la nazione Sioux!
Evviva la nazione Cherokee!
Evviva i veri americani!
Gianni Bordet
P.S.
Con Ufficiali come Lei Signor Peters L’America NON VA in NESSUN POSTO.
Bisogna proprio essere degli sciagurati per criticare il povero Presidente Obama che cerca con grande fatica di limitare i danni fatti dalla cricca di politici dementi che lo hanno preceduto!
Probabilmente ha ragione il Professor Igor Panarin che fà previsioni nere sul futuro degli US!
October 5th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Mr. Peters,
I agree with you on everything except that statement that Iran is about peace for us. I don’t think it’s only reason for us to be there.
Sincerely,
Goran
October 5th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Peters uses the most predjudicial words I can remember reading in a short article! According to him, instead of GETTING OFF THE OIL INFRASTRUCTURE, we must go to war, war, war (Iraq, Afgan, Iran) & more war (Russia), and finally China, Sudan, Nigeria, Venzuala, probably Brazil & whoever else has oil they won’t sell cheap in unlimited quantities??? At least his assurance that “we” (Bankrupt US & falling apart NATO & paranoid pipsqueak Israel) will LOSE at some stage of this crazy course – is TRUE! Grow up: build self-propelling vehicles as if your life depended on it. Because it probably does!